CFT Duals for Extreme Black Holes

It is argued that the general four-dimensional extremal Kerr-Newman-AdS-dS black hole is holographically dual to a (chiral half of a) two-dimensional CFT, generalizing an argument given recently for the special case of extremal Kerr. Specifically, the asymptotic symmetries of the near-horizon region of the general extremal black hole are shown to be generated by a Virasoro algebra. Semiclassical formulae are derived for the central charge and temperature of the dual CFT as functions of the cosmological constant, Newton's constant and the black hole charges and spin. We then show, assuming the Cardy formula, that the microscopic entropy of the dual CFT precisely reproduces the macroscopic Bekenstein-Hawking area law. This CFT description becomes singular in the extreme Reissner-Nordstrom limit where the black hole has no spin. At this point a second dual CFT description is proposed in which the global part of the U(1) gauge symmetry is promoted to a Virasoro algebra. This second description is also found to reproduce the area law. Various further generalizations including higher dimensions are discussed.Comment: 18 pages; v2 minor change

Offline to Online Conversion

We consider the problem of converting offline estimators into an online predictor or estimator with small extra regret. Formally this is the problem of merging a collection of probability measures over strings of length 1,2,3,... into a single probability measure over infinite sequences. We describe various approaches and their pros and cons on various examples. As a side-result we give an elementary non-heuristic purely combinatoric derivation of Turing's famous estimator. Our main technical contribution is to determine the computational complexity of online estimators with good guarantees in general.Comment: 20 LaTeX page

MDL Convergence Speed for Bernoulli Sequences

The Minimum Description Length principle for online sequence estimation/prediction in a proper learning setup is studied. If the underlying model class is discrete, then the total expected square loss is a particularly interesting performance measure: (a) this quantity is finitely bounded, implying convergence with probability one, and (b) it additionally specifies the convergence speed. For MDL, in general one can only have loss bounds which are finite but exponentially larger than those for Bayes mixtures. We show that this is even the case if the model class contains only Bernoulli distributions. We derive a new upper bound on the prediction error for countable Bernoulli classes. This implies a small bound (comparable to the one for Bayes mixtures) for certain important model classes. We discuss the application to Machine Learning tasks such as classification and hypothesis testing, and generalization to countable classes of i.i.d. models.Comment: 28 page

Solomonoff Induction Violates Nicod's Criterion

Nicod's criterion states that observing a black raven is evidence for the hypothesis H that all ravens are black. We show that Solomonoff induction does not satisfy Nicod's criterion: there are time steps in which observing black ravens decreases the belief in H. Moreover, while observing any computable infinite string compatible with H, the belief in H decreases infinitely often when using the unnormalized Solomonoff prior, but only finitely often when using the normalized Solomonoff prior. We argue that the fault is not with Solomonoff induction; instead we should reject Nicod's criterion.Comment: ALT 201

An Enhanced Features Extractor for a Portfolio of Constraint Solvers

Recent research has shown that a single arbitrarily efficient solver can be significantly outperformed by a portfolio of possibly slower on-average solvers. The solver selection is usually done by means of (un)supervised learning techniques which exploit features extracted from the problem specification. In this paper we present an useful and flexible framework that is able to extract an extensive set of features from a Constraint (Satisfaction/Optimization) Problem defined in possibly different modeling languages: MiniZinc, FlatZinc or XCSP. We also report some empirical results showing that the performances that can be obtained using these features are effective and competitive with state of the art CSP portfolio techniques

Bayesian DNA copy number analysis

BACKGROUND: Some diseases, like tumors, can be related to chromosomal aberrations, leading to changes of DNA copy number. The copy number of an aberrant genome can be represented as a piecewise constant function, since it can exhibit regions of deletions or gains. Instead, in a healthy cell the copy number is two because we inherit one copy of each chromosome from each our parents. Bayesian Piecewise Constant Regression (BPCR) is a Bayesian regression method for data that are noisy observations of a piecewise constant function. The method estimates the unknown segment number, the endpoints of the segments and the value of the segment levels of the underlying piecewise constant function. The Bayesian Regression Curve (BRC) estimates the same data with a smoothing curve. However, in the original formulation, some estimators failed to properly determine the corresponding parameters. For example, the boundary estimator did not take into account the dependency among the boundaries and succeeded in estimating more than one breakpoint at the same position, losing segments. RESULTS: We derived an improved version of the BPCR (called mBPCR) and BRC, changing the segment number estimator and the boundary estimator to enhance the fitting procedure. We also proposed an alternative estimator of the variance of the segment levels, which is useful in case of data with high noise. Using artificial data, we compared the original and the modified version of BPCR and BRC with other regression methods, showing that our improved version of BPCR generally outperformed all the others. Similar results were also observed on real data. CONCLUSION: We propose an improved method for DNA copy number estimation, mBPCR, which performed very well compared to previously published algorithms. In particular, mBPCR was more powerful in the detection of the true position of the breakpoints and of small aberrations in very noisy data. Hence, from a biological point of view, our method can be very useful, for example, to find targets of genomic aberrations in clinical cancer samples

An integrated Bayesian analysis of LOH and copy number data

BACKGROUND Cancer and other disorders are due to genomic lesions. SNP-microarrays are able to measure simultaneously both genotype and copy number (CN) at several Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) along the genome. CN is defined as the number of DNA copies, and the normal is two, since we have two copies of each chromosome. The genotype of a SNP is the status given by the nucleotides (alleles) which are present on the two copies of DNA. It is defined homozygous or heterozygous if the two alleles are the same or if they differ, respectively. Loss of heterozygosity (LOH) is the loss of the heterozygous status due to genomic events. Combining CN and LOH data, it is possible to better identify different types of genomic aberrations. For example, a long sequence of homozygous SNPs might be caused by either the physical loss of one copy or a uniparental disomy event (UPD), i.e. each SNP has two identical nucleotides both derived from only one parent. In this situation, the knowledge of the CN can help in distinguishing between these two events. RESULTS To better identify genomic aberrations, we propose a method (called gBPCR) which infers the type of aberration occurred, taking into account all the possible influence in the microarray detection of the homozygosity status of the SNPs, resulting from an altered CN level. Namely, we model the distributions of the detected genotype, given a specific genomic alteration and we estimate the parameters involved on public reference datasets. The estimation is performed similarly to the modified Bayesian Piecewise Constant Regression, but with improved estimators for the detection of the breakpoints.Using artificial and real data, we evaluate the quality of the estimation of gBPCR and we also show that it outperforms other well-known methods for LOH estimation. CONCLUSIONS We propose a method (gBPCR) for the estimation of both LOH and CN aberrations, improving their estimation by integrating both types of data and accounting for their relationships. Moreover, gBPCR performed very well in comparison with other methods for LOH estimation and the estimated CN lesions on real data have been validated with another technique.This work was supported by Swiss National Science Foundation (grants 205321-112430, 205320-121886/1); Oncosuisse grants OCS-1939-8-2006 and OCS - 02296-08-2008; Cantone Ticino ("Computational life science/Ticino in rete” program); Fondazione per la Ricerca e la Cura sui Linfomi (Lugano, Switzerland)